Trump’s approval rating sinks to 37% as key battlegrounds erode
One year in, the president's net rating has plunged 21 points. With a hardened 56% majority now disapproving and 'Blue Wall' states flipping negative, Republicans faces severe headwinds for 2026.
One year into his second term, President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has sunk to 37% in a significant slide driven by deep voter dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy.
According to new projections from The Economist and YouGov, a hardened 56% majority of Americans now disapprove of the president’s performance. This creates a net approval rating of minus 19 points, a stark reversal from the positive +2 point net rating he enjoyed at his inauguration in January 2025.
The data reveals that the 21-point plunge in his net standing is fueled by precipitous drops in confidence regarding inflation (-27 net approval) and immigration (-7), signaling significant headwinds for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
What's more is the percentage of Americans who believe the country to be on the wrong track has jumped from 50% to 61% over the last twelve months.
Electoral map erodes
The national souring by voters on the president’s performance is deeply reflected at the state level.
While Trump retains high approval in deep-red states like Wyoming (+35 points) and West Virginia (+35 points), his standing has eroded significantly in the battlegrounds that secured his Electoral College victory over Kamala Harris in 2024.
According to the data projections, the Blue Wall states that Trump successfully flipped back (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) now all register net negative approval ratings.
Other key swing states, including Arizona and Nevada, show razor-thin positive margins of just +2 points, suggesting they are teetering on the edge of disapproval.
Inflation and immigration disconnect
The primary engine of voter discontent appears to be a perceived failure to deliver on the administration’s core economic and security promises. Despite the White House’s aggressive moves on trade and border enforcement, public sentiment on these specific issues has cratered.
The most dramatic shift occurred regarding the cost of living. In January 2025, Trump enjoyed a +6 point net approval rating on handling inflation and prices. One year later, that has swung 33 points to a dismal -27.
This aligns with recent Bureau of Labor Statistics reports indicating that while the rate of inflation has stabilized, price levels remain a persistent pain point for consumers.
Similarly, while the administration has touted a statistical plunge in illegal immigration, voters are unimpressed with the results. Approval for Trump’s immigration policy flipped from a robust +11 points at inauguration to a negative -7 points today, an 18-point drop.
This suggests that even when the administration achieves its metric goals, the implementation or the surrounding atmosphere may be alienating voters. Data shows that inflation and jobs remain the top priorities for the electorate as a whole, far outpacing partisan concerns.
Fractured coalition
The demographic breakdown of the president’s approval ratings reveals a coalition under severe stress. Trump retains strong backing from his traditional base: male voters (+8 points net) and those with a high school education or less (+12 points).
Mr. Trump’s standing among other critical demographics, however, is abysmal. The gender gap remains a chasm, with women registering a -28 point net approval rating. Young voters under 30 are the most intensely disapproving block at -38 points.
Perhaps most alarming for Republican strategists eyeing the midterms is the softness among seniors. Voters over 65, typically a reliable and high-turnout voting bloc for the GOP, are only marginally supportive of the president, registering a lukewarm +2 points net approval.
With the 2026 election cycle beginning, the combination of geographic erosion in swing states, intense voter frustration over the cost of living, and a wavering base among seniors presents a difficult political environment for Republicans attempting to defend their congressional majorities.
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