The United States and Iran hold a preliminary memorandum of understanding to end the war following more than 100 days of regional conflict, yet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu retains the geopolitical leverage to dismantle the fragile framework before a formal agreement takes root.
Following months of warfare, Washington and Tehran announce a pact centered primarily on restoring global commerce. The agreement reopens the Strait of Hormuz and lifts the U.S. naval blockade on Iran, as President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian sign the MoU. Trump immediately claims a strategic victory, telling global shipping vessels to “start your engines, let the oil flow.” A diplomat confirms the agreement was signed electronically.
Current and former U.S. officials say intelligence agencies warned the Trump administration that Netanyahu will likely take steps to undermine the peace effort. Facing intense domestic political pressure, Israel appears intent on maintaining military operations against Iran’s proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon. Officials say this aim flouts a core element of the fledgling agreement calling for an end to hostilities, according to an intelligence report published by The Washington Post this week.
The Lebanon Tripwire
More than three months after a U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran triggered a broader Middle East conflict, Lebanon remains the active front line. The Israel Defense Forces occupy more than 200 square miles of Lebanese territory, enforcing what the military terms a depopulated “security zone.” Lebanese authorities report the campaign kills more than 3,000 people and displaces an estimated 1.2 million residents.
While Washington and Tehran seek an off-ramp to stabilize global energy markets, Netanyahu signals zero intention of withdrawing Israeli forces from the territory. The Israeli prime minister confirms his military establishes a permanent presence in the country’s south, telling reporters in Jerusalem this week, “Regarding Lebanon, we created a buffer zone, a security zone. We will stay there as long as necessary.”
This localized occupation creates a direct clash with the Trump administration’s diplomatic objectives. The White House applies public pressure, with Vice President JD Vance utilizing the White House briefing room to issue a stark warning to the Israeli cabinet regarding its military decisions. Trump publicly rebukes the Israeli prime minister, stating Netanyahu “has to be more responsible in Lebanon” while confirming he is “not happy” with Israel’s prolonged military footprint, urging the Israeli leader to not “knock down a building every time somebody walks into it that’s from Hezbollah.”
Despite the friction, U.S. displeasure rarely dictates Israeli security policy, and analysts in Tehran and Washington expect Israel to continue advancing its own interests outside the confines of the U.S.-Iran agreement.
Domestic Political Survival
U.S. intelligence reporting captures a key incentive driving Netanyahu’s policy decisions: political survival. Faced with national elections this fall, Netanyahu is under pressure in Israel to maintain the offensive against Hezbollah.
Popular opinion in Israel remains highly supportive of efforts to dismantle the Iranian proxy group that joined Hamas in attacking Israel with rockets in October 2023. Tens of thousands of Israelis displaced from their homes in the country’s north demand that Netanyahu eliminate the militant threat. Polling from the Institute of National Security Studies indicates 70% of Jewish Israelis support intensifying the fight against Hezbollah. Israeli political analysts widely assert that a military pullback registers as a sign of defeat to voters.
Israeli cabinet officials stand their ground against Washington’s push for de-escalation. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir states on social media that “All of Lebanon should burn” in response to Israeli casualties.
The U.S. intelligence report describes Israel’s profound frustration with the terms of the Trump peace memorandum. Officials convey Israel’s perception that the agreement constrains its ability to defend itself against Hezbollah and undermines its broader objective of maintaining maximum pressure on Tehran.
Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” Red Line
Netanyahu’s insistence on holding Lebanese territory places Tehran in an ideological and strategic bind. For decades, the Iranian establishment grounds its foreign policy in an “Axis of Resistance,” utilizing allied forces across the region to counter U.S. and Israeli influence. Iranian leadership repeatedly emphasizes that peace on all fronts, specifically including Lebanon, must serve as a prerequisite for any lasting agreement with the United States.
The fragility of the truce already faces active testing. In the days preceding the memorandum’s announcement, Israel launched attacks on the suburbs of Beirut. The strikes trigger an immediate Iranian response, with ballistic missiles launched in retaliation. Tensions defuse only following direct White House intervention, yet Israel strikes Beirut again just hours before the Trump administration pushes through the memorandum with Tehran.
While Tehran ultimately restrains its proxy forces following last-minute mediation, the incidents highlight the immediate danger. If Netanyahu escalates the conflict in Lebanon, Iran faces immense internal pressure from its own hardliners to retaliate, forcing Tehran to choose between keeping the Strait of Hormuz open for Washington or defending its core regional allies. Without a full Israeli withdrawal, former U.S. officials assess the likelihood of resumed hostilities between the Israeli military and Hezbollah as all but certain.
The Nuclear Dust
Beyond the immediate threat of a renewed shooting war in Lebanon, the U.S.-Iran memorandum leaves the fundamental catalyst of the conflict entirely unresolved: Iran’s nuclear program.
The U.S. military campaign heavily damages or destroys nearly all of Iran’s primary nuclear facilities. However, highly enriched uranium remains buried inside fortified underground bunkers. Trump refers to the remaining material as “nuclear dust,” but neutralizing it requires heavy technical equipment, specialized experts on the ground, and extensive time.
The Trump administration steps back from its previous hardline demand prohibiting any enrichment on Iranian soil, now suggesting a 15- to 20-year suspension. Conversely, Tehran refuses to allow the U.S. to extract the uranium and remove it from the country. Iranian leadership views the fortified material as their ultimate leverage against future regime change efforts, maintaining a critical standoff even as the broader war pauses.
An Economic Band-Aid
For now, the agreement functions as an economic tourniquet rather than a comprehensive peace treaty.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz successfully disrupts global energy markets and raises the daily cost of living worldwide, sending global gas prices soaring and forcing Washington to the negotiating table. In exchange for reopening the waterway, Iran secures the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade.
This diplomatic maneuver allows goods to flow back into Iran’s southern ports, a critical necessity for an isolated nation suffering from 70% inflation and a quadrupling of staple food prices. Trump reportedly offers Iran an immediate lifting of the blockade, bypassing a standard 30-day waiting period, as a direct concession to prevent Iran from retaliating against Israel’s recent strikes on Beirut.
Trump holds leverage over Israel to force compliance, including the ability to cut off munitions, jet fuel, and maintenance support, or to freeze critical intelligence sharing. While U.S. presidents historically avoid such actions, precedents exist: Dwight D. Eisenhower threatened sanctions over the Sinai Peninsula in 1956, Ronald Reagan delayed F-16 deliveries in 1981, and George H.W. Bush withheld housing loan guarantees.
Despite the historical leverage and the immediate economic relief secured by the memorandum, the underlying dynamics of the Middle East remain largely unchanged. The U.S. and Iran achieve a temporary pause required to declare domestic political victories. But as long as Israel acts independently in Lebanon and the nuclear issue remains buried underground, the deal survives day-to-day, entirely vulnerable to a single miscalculation on the Lebanese front.
Trump’s U.S.-Iran pact reopens the Strait of Hormuz, but Israel’s military presence in southern Lebanon threatens to collapse the fragile peace.
🎙️ Original Audio/Reporting: Al Jazeera English (The Take) 📰 Flingjore.com: Journalism for the engagement era.
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